The current discussion over present and future food security is as relevant today as it has been for decades. According to various estimations, farming systems will need to provide 70 to 100 percent more food within the next 40 years. This extra production will be needed to feed a larger population with higher demands in terms of total calorie intake as well as types of food consumed. In any production process, uniformity of output at a high level brings maximum productivity. As agriculture is highly dependent on weather (temperature, radiation and precipitation), performance is very variable, and we can only compare agricultural productivity between regions where similar agro climatic conditions prevail. Where large yield gaps between similar agro climatic regions exist, however, it is logical to assume that these gaps, being mostly driven by management factors, can be closed through use of best practices informed and supported by science.
It is time, therefore, to concentrate our efforts in low yielding areas, where yields can be brought up to match potential. For example, we know that maize productivity in East Africa can be doubled, just by using good quality seeds and moderate NPK fertilizer application. We also know that large regions in eastern Europe, despite having favorable precipitation are well below their cereal production capacity (see Mueller et al., Nature 490, 2012). Another argument for focusing on the low yielding systems is that increasing productivity under such conditions is very profitable in terms of nutrient use efficiency, ensuring that for every additional grain of nutrient, the highest product returns are obtained.
We believe that a significant proportion of the extra 70 to 100 percent increase in production is waiting to be realized from low yielding areas. This belief is based on our strong conviction that farmers can improve their management skills; this is where we should aim our thoughts and our actions.
